A resilience-based approach to risk assemessment: building resilient organisations under arctic conditions

Reliability and higher levels of safety are thought to be achieved by using systematic approaches to managing risks. The assessment of risks has produced a range of different approaches to assessing these uncertainties, presenting models for how risks affect individuals or organisations. Contemporary risk assessment tools based on this approach have proven difficult for practitioners to use as tools for tactical and operational decision-making. This paper presents an alternative to these assessments by utilising a resilience perspective, arguing that complex systems are inclined to variety and uncertainty regarding the results they produce and are therefore prone to systemic failures. A continuous improvement approach is a source of reliability when managing complex systems and is necessary to manage varieties and uncertainties. For an organisation to understand how risk events occur, it is necessary to define what is believed to be the equilibrium of the system in time and space. By applying a Resilience Engineering (RE) perspective to risk assessment, it is possible to manage this complexity by assessing the ability to respond, monitor, learn and anticipate risks, and in so doing to move away from the flawed frequency and consequences approach. Using a research station network in the Arctic as an example illustrates how a RE approach qualifies assessments by bridging risk assessments with value-creation processes. The paper concludes by arguing that a resilience-based risk assessment can improve on current practice, including for organisations located outside the Arctic region.