Speed bump or accelerator: how will climate change effect anthropogenic hazards?

There is overwhelming scientific consensus on the occurrence of climate change, which will have major impacts on most human and ecological systems. There is also high confidence that climate change, for instance, will increase the intensity and frequency of extreme meteorological events (such as hurricanes, heavy precipitation, and drought). However, there exists very limited knowledge on how climate change will affect other disastrous event-types.

Climate change is described as a slow-onset or creeping disaster, but our main interpretation of climate change primarily relates to an increase in the global mean temperature and the direct effects of this change. However, will climate change also cascade into or otherwise trigger so-called anthropogenic hazards, which are hazards caused by human action or inaction (e.g. wars, riots and civil disorder,‎ industrial accidents, transportation accidents, terrorist incidents, building collapses, etc.‎)? Moreover, are people in governance in their risk perception, and rightly so, solely targeting the meteorological/hydrological/climatological/biological effects of climate change? In this study, we will investigate and map this untouched field.

The study will visit the literature on the topic and scrutinize empirical data to create a conceptual debate, which will feed into some theoretical reflections around the topic. The approach is explorative and endeavors to locate a variety of cases (maximum variation) and examine extreme cases (to obtain information on unusual cases, which can be especially problematic). The aim is to include both qualitative and quantitative data.

It is expected that the study will produce a deeper understanding of the cascading/triggering impacts of climate change (including temporal and spatial scales) in unexpected arenas, to assist governments in shaping management systems to secure proactive and timely response to these hazards. We also expect to critically discuss the over-all categorization of disasters, i.e. natural or human-made, as this distinction is anticipated to be less evident in an era with climate change largely caused by anthropogenic activities.

NB: the study is in its preliminary phase concerning scope, theories and method, and is still open for inclusion of co-authors. Funding will be applied for, as soon as these issues are in place.